What are avoided emissions?

Material recycling reduces the need for virgin raw materials

In a linear economy, new raw materials are extracted to manufacture products that are often incinerated or landfilled when they reach the end of their useful life. In a circular economy, materials are instead recovered and used as feedstock for new products, reducing the need to extract and process virgin resources.

Products made from recycled materials often have a lower climate footprint than equivalent products made from virgin raw materials. As a result, emissions can potentially be avoided when recycled materials replace virgin resources.

How do we calculate avoided emissions?

Ragn-Sells has worked with 2050 Consulting and Tyréns to calculate avoided emissions for selected materials. The calculations are based on a comparative climate assessment using a life-cycle perspective, where climate impacts are compared across different scenarios for how materials and products are managed.

The methodology is inspired by established Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) principles but should not be considered a full LCA.

The avoided emissions from material recycling are calculated as the difference in CO₂e emissions between the following two scenarios:

• A recycling scenario, where the waste is recycled into a new product.
• A reference scenario, where the same waste is not recycled but instead incinerated or landfilled, while a new product is manufactured using virgin raw materials.

A comparative climate assessment with a life-cycle perspective

The calculations include several stages of the value chain, including:

• Collection and handling of waste
• Material recycling
• Manufacturing of a new product
• Transportation between the different stages

This approach highlights the potential climate benefits of the entire circular system rather than focusing on a single process.

Key assumptions and limitations

To ensure comparability, the calculations are based on a number of common assumptions:

• The calculations cover a single recycling cycle and show the potential avoided emissions resulting from recycling a material once.
• The results are scenario-based and therefore do not represent actual outcomes, but rather an estimate of emissions that may be avoided.
• The calculations do not include any lost electricity or heat generation that would have occurred if the material had been recovered through energy recovery instead of material recycling.
• The calculations focus primarily on fossil greenhouse gas emissions.

A shared effort across the value chain

Avoided emissions are made possible through the contributions of multiple actors. No single organization should therefore claim the entire climate benefit. Customers who send materials for recycling can instead state that they contribute to or enable avoided emissions together with other actors across the value chain.